Evaluating Deal Quickly and Efficiently

Or, “Why I don’t invest in the Greater Seattle Area.”

 

Here are a couple of MLS listings I received recently:

3040 SW Avalon
Price $895,000.00 Down: $298,333.33
Rehab $0.00
Units 6
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
GSI $62,700.00 $63,954.00 $65,233.08 $66,537.74 $67,868.50
Vacancy $3,135.00 $3,197.70 $3,261.65 $3,326.89 $3,393.42
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
GOI $59,565.00 $60,756.30 $61,971.43 $63,210.85 $64,475.07
Total Exp $29,782.50 $30,378.15 $30,985.71 $31,605.43 $32,237.54
NOI $29,782.50 $30,378.15 $30,985.71 $31,605.43 $32,237.54
Mortgage $40,653.69 $40,653.69 $40,653.69 $40,653.69 $40,653.69
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Free Cash Flow -$10,871.19 -$10,275.54 -$9,667.98 -$9,048.27 -$8,416.16
DSCR 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.79
Loan Interest Term
$596,666.67 5.5 30
$3,387.81 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Balance $596,666.67 $596,666.67 $596,666.67 $596,666.67 $596,666.67
Interest Payments $32,816.67 $32,816.67 $32,816.67 $32,816.67 $32,816.67
Principal $7,837.03 $7,837.03 $7,837.03 $7,837.03 $7,837.03
Projected Cash Flow -$10,871 -$10,276 -$9,668 -$9,048 -$8,416
ROI -1.02% -1.83% -2.45% -2.85% -3.05%
COC -3.64% -3.44% -3.24% -3.03% -2.82%
Value @ 5 Cap $595,650 $607,563 $619,714 $632,109 $644,751
Value @ 6.5 Cap $458,192 $467,356 $476,703 $486,237 $495,962
Value @ 10 Cap $297,825 $303,782 $309,857 $316,054 $322,375
ROI @6.5 Cap -$138,474.36 -$129,310.51 -$119,963.39 -$110,429.32 -$100,704.58
ROI on Sale -46.42% -43.34% -40.21% -37.02% -33.76%
24415 Pacific Hwy S
Price $645,950.00 Down: $215,316.67
Rehab $0.00
Units 8
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
GSI $55,200.00 $56,304.00 $57,430.08 $58,578.68 $59,750.26
Vacancy $2,760.00 $2,815.20 $2,871.50 $2,928.93 $2,987.51
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
GOI $52,440.00 $53,488.80 $54,558.58 $55,649.75 $56,762.74
Total Exp $26,220.00 $26,744.40 $27,279.29 $27,824.87 $28,381.37
NOI $26,220.00 $26,744.40 $27,279.29 $27,824.87 $28,381.37
Mortgage $29,341.06 $29,341.06 $29,341.06 $29,341.06 $29,341.06
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Free Cash Flow -$3,121.06 $2,596.66 -$2,061.78 -$1,516.19 -$959.69
DSCR 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97
Loan Interest Term
$430,633.33 5.5 30
$2,445.09 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Balance $430,633.33 $430,633.33 $430,633.33 $430,633.33 $430,633.33
Interest Payments $23,684.83 $23,684.83 $23,684.83 $23,684.83 $23,684.83
Principal $5,656.23 $5,656.23 $5,656.23 $5,656.23 $5,656.23
Projected Cash Flow -$3,121 -$2,597 -$2,062 -$1,516 -$960
ROI 1.18% 2.60% 4.27% 6.19% 8.37%
COC -1.45% -1.21% -0.96% -0.70% -0.45%
Value @ 5 Cap $524,400 $534,888 $545,586 $556,497 $567,627
Value @ 6.5 Cap $403,385 $411,452 $419,681 $428,075 $436,636
Value @ 10 Cap $262,200 $267,444 $272,793 $278,249 $283,814
ROI @6.5 Cap -$27,248.72 -$19,181.03 $10,951.98 -$2,558.35 $6,003.15
ROI on Sale -12.66% -8.91% -5.09% -1.19% 2.79%
409 SW 155th http://media.matrix.nwmls.com/mediaserver/GetMedia.ashx?Key=71543235&TableID=5&Type=1&Size=3&exk=d07c72f91d6c01d69250e9705dc17dd2&Number=0
Price $1,395,000.00 Down: $465,000.00
Rehab $0.00
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
GSI $117,360.00 $119,707.20 $122,101.34 $124,543.37 $127,034.24
Vacancy $5,868.00 $5,985.36 $6,105.07 $6,227.17 $6,351.71
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
GOI $111,492.00 $113,721.84 $115,996.28 $118,316.20 $120,682.53
Total Exp $55,746.00 $56,860.92 $57,998.14 $59,158.10 $60,341.26
NOI $55,746.00 $56,860.92 $57,998.14 $59,158.10 $60,341.26
Mortgage $63,365.25 $63,365.25 $63,365.25 $63,365.25 $63,365.25
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Free Cash Flow -$7,619.25 -$6,504.33 -$5,367.11 -$4,207.15 -$3,023.99
DSCR 0.88 0.9 0.92 0.93 0.95
Loan Interest Term
$930,000.00 5.5 30
$5,280.44 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Balance $930,000.00 $930,000.00 $930,000.00 $930,000.00 $930,000.00
Interest Payments $51,150.00 $51,150.00 $51,150.00 $51,150.00 $51,150.00
Principal $12,215.25 $12,215.25 $12,215.25 $12,215.25 $12,215.25
Projected Cash Flow -$7,619 -$6,504 -$5,367 -$4,207 -$3,024
ROI 0.99% 2.22% 3.69% 5.41% 7.39%
COC -1.64% -1.40% -1.15% -0.90% -0.65%
Value @ 5 Cap $1,114,920 $1,137,218 $1,159,963 $1,183,162 $1,206,825
Value @ 6.5 Cap $857,631 $874,783 $892,279 $910,125 $928,327
Value @ 10 Cap $557,460 $568,609 $579,981 $591,581 $603,413
ROI @6.5 Cap -$72,369.23 -$55,216.62 -$37,720.95 -$19,875.37 -$1,672.87
ROI on Sale -15.56% -11.87% -8.11% -4.27% -0.36%
409 SW 155th
Price $895,000.00 $298,333.33 Downpayment
Rehab $0.00
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
GSI $78,840.00 $80,416.80 $82,025.14 $83,665.64 $85,338.95
Vacancy $3,942.00 $4,020.84 $4,101.26 $4,183.28 $4,266.95
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
GOI $74,898.00 $76,395.96 $77,923.88 $79,482.36 $81,072.00
Total Exp $37,449.00 $38,197.98 $38,961.94 $39,741.18 $40,536.00
NOI $37,449.00 $38,197.98 $38,961.94 $39,741.18 $40,536.00
Mortgage $40,653.69 $40,653.69 $40,653.69 $40,653.69 $40,653.69
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Free Cash Flow -$3,204.69 -$2,455.71 -$1,691.75 -$912.51 -$117.69
DSCR 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1
Loan Interest Term
$596,666.67 5.5 30
$3,387.81 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Balance $596,666.67 $596,666.67 $596,666.67 $596,666.67 $596,666.67
Interest Payments $32,816.67 $32,816.67 $32,816.67 $32,816.67 $32,816.67
Principal $7,837.03 $7,837.03 $7,837.03 $7,837.03 $7,837.03
Projected Cash Flow -$3,205 -$2,456 -$1,692 -$913 -$118
ROI 1.55% 3.36% 5.42% 7.74% 10.32%
COC -1.07% -0.82% -0.57% -0.31% -0.04%
Value @ 5 Cap $748,980 $763,960 $779,239 $794,824 $810,720
Value @ 6.5 Cap $576,138 $587,661 $599,414 $611,403 $623,631
Value @ 10 Cap $374,490 $381,980 $389,619 $397,412 $405,360
ROI @6.5 Cap -$20,528.21 $9,005.44 $2,747.79 $14,736.08 $26,964.13
ROI on Sale -6.88% -3.02% 0.92% 4.94% 9.04%

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